Thank you very much for having me here today. It’s a real pleasure to share some thoughts, expectations, and futurist visions for what will happen after the COVID-19 pandemic. I know a lot of people and businesses have been adversely affected, and we will see the knock-on effects for years to come. However, there are also opportunities, and in the long run, we might see some potential upsides as a result of this crisis.
Now, this isn’t to say that what happened was good. This has been a horrific situation from a public health standpoint, in terms of human lives lost, and from an economic perspective. But there are a few big changes that could bring about outcomes that might be beneficial in the long term.
The Future of Work
One of the biggest areas of transformation is the future of work. Even before the pandemic, we saw a growing trend in remote work, but COVID-19 forced that trend into hyperdrive. Suddenly, we saw a record number of people working from home, and the economy was divided into three categories of jobs:
- Essential workers: Those who had to be physically present to perform their jobs.
- Remote workers: Those who could work from home.
- Non-essential, non-remote workers: Those whose jobs effectively disappeared during the economic shutdown.
This segmentation will have a lasting impact on how people think about their careers. Going forward, many people who found themselves in non-essential, non-remote jobs may seek employment in the other two categories. Young people, influenced by this crisis, will likely choose careers that provide either critical economic stability or the flexibility of remote work.
For example, I became an economist and futurist partly because of my own experience with the 2001 recession. I graduated college in 1999, thinking the economy would be even better in 2001 when I finished my master’s degree. I was wrong. That experience cast a shadow over my career decisions for two decades. In the same way, today’s young people—those in high school, college, or just entering the workforce—are looking at this crisis and making career choices accordingly.
We can expect a major shift toward remote work, increased employment in IT, and a surge of interest in healthcare professions. Fewer people commuting means more time with family, less reliance on fossil fuels, and reduced traffic congestion—potential long-term benefits of this transformation.
The Future of Education
Another major change will be in education. Many people who had never tried online learning before were forced to do so, and this will accelerate the acceptance of online education. I’ve completed three master’s degrees, and the third one was entirely online. Even when I defended my thesis, my examiners were in Alaska while I was in Texas.
Online education has been growing for years, with platforms like LinkedIn Learning and university-based courses seeing increased demand. The pandemic accelerated this trend, making online learning a mainstream option for many. This could lead to a more educated workforce in the coming decades.
For example, in Texas, there is a project called 60 by 30, which aims to have 60% of people aged 25-34 hold a post-secondary degree or certification by 2030. That seemed ambitious in 2019, but after the pandemic, it now seems much more achievable.
The Future of Healthcare
The healthcare sector is another area where we may see lasting change. Just as many people enlisted in the military after 9/11, the COVID-19 pandemic might inspire a new generation to pursue careers in healthcare. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics already projected massive demand for healthcare jobs, and this crisis could push even more people into the field.
If we have more healthcare providers, a more educated populace, and people spending more time at home rather than commuting, we could see significantly improved long-term public health outcomes.
The Future of Finance
On the financial side, there are more concerns. Central banks have stepped in aggressively to stabilize the economy, effectively making it "too big to fail." The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have significantly expanded their balance sheets, essentially printing money to buy government and corporate debt.
Historically, reducing the central bank’s balance sheet has been difficult. The Fed attempted it in 2018-2019, but had to quickly reverse course as business investment shrank. A similar attempt by the European Central Bank between 2012 and 2014 also failed. As a result, central banks are likely to keep expanding their balance sheets indefinitely.
This raises concerns about inflation. While consumer inflation has remained low—averaging 1.8% in the U.S. in 2019—asset inflation has been significant. The Fed’s interventions have driven up the prices of stocks, real estate, and other assets, benefiting investors while leaving consumer prices relatively stable. We may see this pattern continue, with central banks stepping in to support financial markets at every economic downturn.
The Future of Energy
The energy sector is another area facing uncertainty. Commodity prices, including oil and industrial metals, are driven by global manufacturing demand. With reduced commuting and potential declines in air travel, demand for transportation fuels may remain low for years.
One of the paradoxes here is that lower oil prices make electric vehicles (EVs) less cost-competitive. If oil remains cheap, the transition to EVs may slow down. On the other hand, renewable energy for power generation—such as wind and solar—is likely to continue growing.
Supply Chain and Global Trade
Supply chains have come under intense scrutiny during the pandemic. Many companies and consumers realized how dependent they were on global trade, particularly with China. The U.S.-China trade war, which started in 2018, may escalate further as countries reconsider their reliance on foreign manufacturing.
We may see an increase in domestic manufacturing, especially for critical goods like medical devices and pharmaceuticals. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean more manufacturing jobs, as automation will play a key role.
The Future of Real Estate
Retail real estate is likely to take a significant hit as e-commerce continues to expand. Similarly, commercial real estate could suffer as more people work remotely. The cost gap between urban and suburban living may shrink, as people prioritize space over proximity to an office.
Final Thoughts
In summary, the COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped multiple aspects of our lives. We can expect:
- More remote work, with impacts on commuting and fossil fuel consumption.
- An acceleration of online education, leading to a more educated workforce.
- A surge in healthcare careers, improving public health outcomes.
- Continued central bank intervention in financial markets.
- Challenges and shifts in energy consumption and production.
- Changes in supply chain dynamics, with potential increases in domestic manufacturing.
- Long-term changes in real estate trends.
Thank you very much for having me here today. I look forward to answering your questions.