Thank you very much! My name is Angel Diaz-Maroto. Yes, you read it right! It's great to be here.
Two Important Disclaimers
Before I begin, I have two important disclaimers for this talk.
The first is that I had something different prepared, but I decided not to do it. I will explain why later, but I wanted to be upfront about this change.
The second disclaimer is that everything I talk about here might or might not have happened exactly as I describe. This is a sensitive topic—it involves government, banks, and people who might not want their names revealed. So, to be safe, let's just say that these events are reflective experiences. However, if you want to know the real story, feel free to ask me in private.
Turning Crises into Learning Opportunities
Something I have learned in life—often the hard way—is that every crisis leads to learning.
Let me share a personal story. I wasn't planning to include this, but it feels important. When I was 24, I lost my father. It wasn’t easy. He had been sick for a year, so we knew it was coming, but you’re never really prepared for something like that.
At that moment, standing there with him, I made a promise: "You’re going to be proud of me."
At the time, my passion was dancing—I was a professional dancer. Some of you know that I still dance! But I also worked as a software developer. I liked it, but it wasn’t my passion. However, that promise made me rethink my path. I realized I needed to change my focus, and that’s how I built my career. From an electrician to a developer to where I am today.
But here’s my question: Do we really need a big crisis to push us to improve?
Do we need a pandemic to start thinking about improving health systems and remote work? Do we need to wait for economic collapse to start building financial resilience?
My hypothesis is that crises like these will become more frequent. Today, crises spread faster due to globalization and digital communication. A crisis that would have taken years to develop 50 years ago can now escalate in days.
Just as we prepare for earthquakes and fires, we should prepare for business threats. Whether it’s new competitors disrupting the market, technological shifts, or economic instability—these things are inevitable.
Agility is Not Enough—We Need Resilience
We are here in the Agile community because we recognize that businesses must adapt. In today’s world, new products are created in weeks. Either your company adapts, or your customers will choose another provider.
Disruption used to happen every decade. Then every five years. Now, disruptive startups emerge every year. And soon, it will be every week.
Think about how easy it is to create a startup today. Getting a banking license and competing with the biggest banks in your country is no longer an impossible dream—it’s a reality.
So, what’s the next step? Resilience. The ability to recover and thrive despite rapid change.
Simulating Crises Instead of Waiting for Them
We already know that Agile is about experimentation. But why wait for a crisis? Why not create our own?
Let me share three stories about companies that simulated crises to build resilience.
Case Study 1: A Bank in Argentina
This bank doesn't exist. (And, of course, Argentina doesn’t exist either!) Just kidding.
They knew that a change in government would affect their top management, their economy, and the bank itself. Instead of waiting for the impact, they simulated it.
One scenario they explored was a strong currency devaluation leading to liquidity issues and potential bank privatization. This is not something banks like to talk about. But ignoring it wouldn’t make the threat go away.
We ran the simulation in stealth mode. It wasn’t widely announced because discussing privatization openly could create panic. However, the exercise led to critical insights:
- A crisis communication plan.
- Potential investment in cryptocurrencies.
- Exploring customer investment in commodities.
None of these were immediate solutions, but they gave the bank a starting point. It’s better to have a plan—even a rough one—than to face a crisis unprepared.
Case Study 2: An Insurance Company in Lithuania
Another totally hypothetical company.
In Lithuania, it became so easy to start an insurance company that employees were leaving established firms to launch their own startups. One employee even used insider knowledge to create a competing company within weeks.
We simulated a scenario where a competitor figured out how to offer free car insurance. What would happen if they took 60% of the market share in a matter of weeks?
The simulation led to an unexpected innovation: a machine learning system that adjusted insurance pricing dynamically based on factors like weather and seasonality. This idea might not have emerged without the crisis simulation.
Case Study 3: Your Company
Now, let’s talk about your company.
What is the biggest threat to your business continuity?
Have you simulated it?
We don’t need to guess the future, but we do need to prepare for it.
How to Simulate a Crisis
The process I use is called strategic crisis simulation. Here’s how it works:
- Simulate a drastic change scenario—something that could threaten your company’s survival.
- Use a team of “wasps”—they prepare a realistic attack scenario against your business.
- Engage the “bees”—this is your company’s response team.
- Follow a structured process:
- Start with a contingency plan.
- Use swarming—bring together people from different departments (and even different companies).
- Develop defensive strategies.
- Improve your plan based on learnings.
This process is iterative. Each simulation refines your ability to handle disruptions.
The Future of Business Resilience
We need a new capability—just as we developed Agile capabilities, we now need resilience capabilities. The ability to withstand and thrive in the face of unexpected disruptions.
We already know that crises create opportunities. So why wait for a crisis?
Simulate your own.