Thank you very much, and thank you all for being here today. I'm delighted to share insights from over 40 years of experience in a volatile VUCA world. My journey began in criminal intelligence and forensics as a behavioral psychologist. Surprisingly, I was then recruited into entertainment, where I spent 20 years supporting motion picture production with Universal Studios, Disney, Paramount, and other major studios, particularly in feature animation and film production.
Many of the practices that have emerged in software development and business agility originated from these dynamic industries. Through my career, I’ve gained hard-won insights that I’d like to share with you over the next 18 minutes. I hope you find them as valuable as I have while helping organizations navigate uncertainty on their journey toward business agility.
Embracing Business Agility
At the heart of business agility is the ability to thrive in an uncertain world—not just to survive or adapt, but to sense change and influence it before it happens. Where do we start in learning how to thrive in an uncertain future?
First Principles Thinking
Let’s begin with the concept of first principles. Aristotle first articulated this approach when facing extremely complex or wicked challenges. Instead of relying on assumptions, he advised breaking the problem down to its fundamental truths and building up solutions from there.
Interestingly, the very act of using first principles requires us to shift our perspective and view challenges in new and different ways. This is how Elon Musk thinks, and there’s no debating that it’s working well for him. This approach serves all of us as we embrace uncertainty and strive to influence the future.
Compasses Over Maps
We are all heading into uncharted territories—each of us starting from different places. Many of us came here today looking for a map to guide our way. However, a key insight, a fundamental first principle, is that because we all start from different places and face different journeys, maps are insufficient. Instead, we need to build compasses, because context matters in an uncertain world.
Even if a particular strategy worked in your last engagement or initiative, you must embrace the challenge of learning from new experiences as they emerge. The essence of business agility is developing the courage and confidence to step into the unknown, embracing uncertainty through continuous learning, multiple perspectives, and experience-driven insights.
Change is Changing
Have you noticed that change itself is changing? This compounds the problem. The toolkits we’ve accumulated over a lifetime may no longer serve us. In fact, they could even hinder us if we delude ourselves into thinking that past tools will prepare us for the future.
The surprising truth? They never will.
Even the best tools and techniques shared with you over the past two days will serve you in the short term, but mastery of any single toolkit will never be enough to navigate the future. So, if change itself is changing, what should we focus on acquiring?
Believing is Seeing
Most of us grew up with the phrase, "I'll believe it when I see it." But that paradigm is no longer true. Instead, we must shift our mindset to: "You won't see it until you believe it."
Think about that for a moment. It’s a radical shift. Our mental models, survival instincts, and ingrained filters prevent us from recognizing disruptive breakthroughs unless we shift our focus to the near horizon. If we don’t believe that we will see something, we won’t see it.
Shifting Focus to the Adjacent Possible
As business agilists, we must shift our attention away from the drama of the day. How many of you feel overwhelmed by endless tasks, trying to do more with less?
That mindset must change.
We need to discern what truly matters and let go of the rest. Our energy follows our attention. Instead of getting consumed by solving today’s problems, we must focus on the horizon—the adjacent possible. This is how we create the future.
Rather than obsessing over completing our to-do lists, we must define an ideal future state with clarity, establish measurable benefits, and execute thin-slice experiments to move toward it.
Attention Shapes Reality
Quantum mechanics tells us that our attention itself influences the future. Aristotle gave us first principles, and Elon Musk applies them, but physics shows us that where we focus our attention creates our reality.
In a VUCA world, if there's one thing we can control, it’s where we focus our attention.
Learning Through Failure
We often hear, "Fail fast to succeed sooner." But failure is not just a stepping stone—it’s the only path to generating new knowledge.
When we succeed, we simply validate what we already believed. When we fail, we generate new insights and build new neural networks. Learning agility is the foundation of business agility.
The Power of Teaching
Learning activates new neural pathways, but teaching is what leads to true transformation.
Instead of focusing on working faster, we must focus on doing less. Identify what is vital and eliminate the rest. Imagine investing all your time in creating real value and eliminating anything that doesn’t contribute to that goal.
Building an Adaptive Leadership Framework
Our adaptive leadership framework enables us to learn and adapt in real time. It follows an iterative cycle:
- Awareness: Observe where you are focusing your attention.
- Experience: Act your way into new thinking—don’t just think your way into new acting.
- Action: Take measurable steps and test hypotheses through thin-slice experiments.
- Belief: Believing is seeing. Your beliefs shape your actions and, ultimately, your reality.
The faster we iterate through this cycle, the faster we learn and embrace business agility.
Conclusion
We must abandon our obsession with predictability and embrace uncertainty. By doing so, we move from merely surviving to actively shaping the future.
As Taiichi Ohno, the father of the Toyota Production System, once said:
"We are doomed to failure without a daily destruction of our various preconceptions."
Hopefully, these insights will help you on your journey toward business agility. Thank you very much.